June 16, 2026
The Steam Engine Lesson for AI
Automation has been compounding since the steam engine, and AI will likely follow the same pattern. The first use cases may be obvious, but the harder and more important question is what new layers of capability and coordination appear after a few generations of second- and third-order effects.
- First-order substitution stories are usually too small.
- Some systems will extend humans directly.
- Some systems will evolve into more independent helpers.